Oil Pulls Back as Iran-Israel Pause Holds; Gold Bounces to $4,345 Ahead of Wednesday CPI

Issue #14 — Tuesday, June 9, 2026 | 07:00 ET

After Monday's 5%-plus oil spike on fresh Iran-Israel strikes, the ceasefire that Trump brokered overnight is holding — for now. Brent crude has retreated roughly 3–4% from Monday's intraday peak, and gold has clawed back about $75 from its 11-week low. Both moves are conditional: the pause between Tehran and Jerusalem is explicitly not a deal, and Wednesday's US CPI print (consensus +4.2% YoY) will determine whether the Fed's 70% December hike odds are cemented or walk back.

Snapshot: Key prices as of ~07:00 ET Tuesday

Commodity	Price	Day Change	Driver
Gold (spot)	~$4,345	+$77 / +1.8%†	Ceasefire hopes; NY 1-yr inflation exp. ↓ to 3.46%
Brent (Aug)	~$93.09	−$1.16 / −1.23%	Iran-Israel pause; profit-taking from Mon highs
WTI (Jul)	~$89.85	−$1.45 / −1.59%	Same; intraday session range $89.60–$91.55
COMEX Copper	$6.3545/lb	+$0.004 / +0.07%	Pre-tariff LME draw continues
LME Copper	~$13,585/t	−0.22%	Tight warehouse stocks; June 30 tariff deadline
SGX iron ore	~$101.75/t	fl.	China steel margin squeeze ongoing
CBOT Corn (Jul)	~419–420¢	~flat	Mixed session; improving US crop ratings

†Gold low was $4,268 intraday Monday (11-week low); recovering as attacks halt.

Oil: sharp roundtrip, now watching the ceasefire seam

Monday opened with the Hormuz choke-point in play again. Israel struck targets in Tehran and Mahshahr; Iran countered with airstrikes on northern Israel and issued a warning that oil and gas infrastructure linked to Israel, the US, and their regional allies was a legitimate target. WTI briefly surged above $94, and Brent spiked toward $98. 1

Then Iran's military announced it had ended its first wave of strikes. Trump called for an immediate halt. By 08:30 UTC Tuesday, Brent had slipped back to $93.09 (−1.23%) and WTI to $89.85 (−1.59%) — both still elevated versus last Friday's close but well off the intraday peak. 2

The retreat is relief-pricing, not resolution. Iran has reserved the right to resume if Israel continues its Lebanon campaign; Netanyahu has said Iran will face retaliation if strikes restart. OPEC+'s +188K bpd paper quota hike — still near-meaningless given that total physical output has collapsed from ~42.8 Mbpd pre-war to ~33.2 Mbpd — provides no buffer if Hormuz traffic seizes up again. 3

Oil refinery complex against a dramatic sky — crude oil processing capacity underpins global supply risk — Crude oil refinery and storage infrastructure. 4

Gold: 11-week low in the rear-view, CPI still the bigger test

Spot gold touched $4,268 on Monday — its cheapest since March 23 — as the oil spike amplified rate-hike fears on top of last week's NFP shock. The metal recovered through Monday's session and was trading around $4,345 (+~$77 from the intraday low, +0.39% from Monday's open) as Iran and Israel stood down. 5

Two data points are keeping the gold bear case alive even through this bounce:

Fed hike odds at 70%. CME FedWatch is pricing a 70% chance of a December hike after the NFP print; 10-year Treasury yields rose 2.5% last week to 4.53%. Gold ETF holdings have fallen 2.72 million oz since the Iran war began in late February.
NY inflation expectations eased, but remain elevated. The New York Fed's 1-year consumer inflation expectation for June dropped from 3.64% to 3.46% (vs. 3.72% consensus) — that helped gold stop the bleeding Monday, but the figure is still well above the Fed's 2% target. 5

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One offsetting long-term buyer remains: the People's Bank of China added 320,000 troy oz in May, extending its gold purchase streak to 19 consecutive months — the longest run since at least 2015. Total PBoC gold reserves are at record levels. That's structural support, but it hasn't been enough to offset ETF outflows and rising real rates in the short term.

Wednesday's US CPI (consensus +4.2% YoY) is the week's critical data point. A print at or above consensus locks in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting as a live hike debate. A surprise miss below 4.0% would likely hand gold a $100–$150 bounce.

Copper: pre-tariff warehouse drain tightens LME stocks

COMEX copper was essentially flat at $6.3545/lb (+0.07%) in early Tuesday trade. The more interesting story is at the LME, where copper warehouse stocks have fallen 6% over the past month to 376,775 tonnes — about 39% of the remaining inventory is on cancelled warrants (i.e., earmarked to leave the exchange system). 6

The draw is being driven by traders moving metal into the US before June 30, when Washington is expected to announce a decision on copper import tariffs (potential 15–30% levies starting 2027 have been flagged). That flow supports copper near term but creates a potential price cliff once the tariff deadline passes and physical demand from China is still soft. LME copper sits between its 21-day moving average resistance (~$13,730/t) and 50-day support (~$13,260/t). 6

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Iron ore and corn: holding their levels

Iron ore (SGX) is roughly flat near $101.75/t — the sixth consecutive week close near this level. Chinese steel mills remain caught between high coking coal costs (which spiked after the Lebanon crisis disrupted shipping) and weak downstream demand; mill margins are negative for many operators. No catalyst visible until China's fiscal stimulus outlook clarifies after the PBoC's Q2 monetary policy report (due late June).

Corn (CBOT July) closed Monday's session with front-month contracts fractionally to 1¼ cents higher — the first gain after a streak of 12 losses in 13 sessions. Cash national average corn came in at $3.85¾/bu. The uptick was partly driven by improved US crop condition ratings (USDA weekly data), but the overall trend remains bearish on ample supply and weak export demand. 7

Key equities to watch

Company	Ticker	Commodity exposure	Relevance today
Exxon Mobil	XOM	WTI / Brent	Crude retreat drags integrated earnings outlook; production ~3.7 Mbpd
Chevron	CVX	WTI / Brent	CEO confirmed multiple Hormuz tanker attacks; downstream risk
BP	BP	Brent	Brent exposure; UK operations less Iranian tanker risk
Barrick Gold	GOLD	Gold	Leveraged gold proxy; $4,300 floor critical for guidance
Newmont	NEM	Gold	Largest gold miner by output; beneficiary of any CPI miss
Freeport-McMoRan	FCX	Copper	COMEX copper flat; pre-tariff LME draw supportive near-term
BHP Group	BHP	Iron ore / Copper	ASX 200 miners slid last week on iron ore softness
Rio Tinto	RIO	Iron ore	SGX iron ore flat; China steel margin squeeze = volume risk
Archer-Daniels-Midland	ADM	Corn / Ag	Corn bounce minor; ADM processing margin pressure

What to watch this week

Wednesday, June 10 — US CPI (May): Consensus +4.2% YoY. The most consequential print for gold, oil, and Fed trajectory since the NFP.
Tuesday, June 10 — China trade balance: Net trade data will signal whether export demand is supporting industrial metals demand.
Thursday, June 11 — ECB rate decision: Widely expected +25bp hike to 2.25%, citing oil-driven inflation. Watch Lagarde's language on further moves.
Thursday, June 11 — US PPI (May): Another inflation read ahead of FOMC.
Monday, June 16–17 — FOMC meeting (Warsh): First meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. Markets at 70% for a hike; outcome depends heavily on the CPI/PPI cluster this week.
Monday, June 30 — Copper tariff decision: US announcement on copper import levies; could reprice LME copper sharply.