Apple fell 2% while chips roared back: the WWDC split screen, Marvell's index pop, and what Oracle reports Wednesday

Monday delivered a market with two competing signals running in opposite directions. Chip stocks and the broader Nasdaq bounced hard from last week's jobs-report rout, but Apple — the event everyone had circled — closed down close to 2% after its WWDC keynote. That divergence is the cleanest summary of where tech sentiment stands heading into one of the heavier event weeks of the year: Oracle reports Wednesday, Adobe on Thursday, and SpaceX prices its historic IPO on Thursday as well. A Fed meeting is eight days away.

The keynote itself delivered. Apple officially rebranded its assistant as "Siri AI," powered by Apple Foundation Models — the company's own large-language model family — with deep integrations into iOS 27, iPadOS 27, and macOS Golden Gate.1 The revamped Siri is more conversational, can reference personal context across apps, takes agentic actions (it will go to each website and change insecure passwords on your behalf), and gets a dedicated standalone app on iPhone, iPad, and Mac.1 The most advanced tier — AFM Cloud Pro, comparable in quality to Google's Gemini Frontier models — runs on Nvidia GPUs inside Google's cloud.1

There were limits worth noting for investors. Siri AI won't be available in Europe or China at launch, due to regulatory hurdles.1 And incoming CEO John Ternus — who takes the helm in September — was absent from the keynote entirely, leaving unanswered questions about strategic continuity.1

Despite those caveats, the bull case is intact for at least one firm. Wedbush's Dan Ives reiterated his Outperform rating and $400 price target after the event, arguing that Siri AI monetization could add $75 to $100 per share to Apple's valuation as the company commercializes AI across its installed base.2

The market's verdict Monday, though, was more skeptical. Shares had already climbed to near record highs in recent weeks on WWDC anticipation. AAPL was up roughly 2% shortly after the open, then turned negative just after 2 p.m. ET as the keynote played, and closed down close to 2%.3 MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett told CNBC the company "has a hard path to deliver on its current valuation."1 Even with Monday's drop, AAPL is up about 11% year-to-date, ahead of the S&P 500's roughly 8% gain.3

The rest of the tech tape told a different story. Chip stocks, which bore the brunt of last Friday's 4.7% Nasdaq selloff, snapped back sharply on Monday.

Marvell had an extra catalyst: S&P Dow Jones Indices announced after Friday's close that MRVL will join the S&P 500 on June 22, alongside data-center manufacturer Flex (FLEX). Campbell's and Pool will be removed.4 That triggered index-fund inclusion buying: passive managers tracking the S&P 500 are required to hold the stock at its index weight starting on the effective date, creating a predictable demand wave heading into June 22.4 Marvell's inclusion follows Jensen Huang's description of the company as a potential trillion-dollar business at Nvidia's COMPUTEX keynote in June.5

Bank of America separately raised its price target on Sandisk (SNDK) to $2,100 with a Buy rating, citing constrained NAND supply and AI data-center-driven demand for flash storage.5

Citigroup lifted its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 on Monday, up from a previous forecast of 7,700, citing AI-driven earnings strength.6 The firm raised its 2026 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $350 per share (from $320) and projects $400 in 2027.5 Citi described the market as being in the "middle innings" of the current earnings cycle, adding that future gains will likely depend more on earnings growth than valuation expansion.5

The overall tape on Monday: Nasdaq +0.9%, S&P 500 +0.3%, Dow -0.1%. The Nasdaq had fallen 4.7% last week, its worst week since early 2025.7

The macro backdrop hasn't softened. Polymarket's odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike spiked to 62% over the weekend before drifting back to 54% on Monday morning.8 Coming into 2026, those odds were 10%.8

The drivers are straightforward: April CPI ran at 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest reading since May 2023; May payrolls came in at 172,000, more than double the 80,000 consensus. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points in the first week of June, to 4.17%.8 The June 16–17 FOMC meeting — Kevin Warsh's first as chair — is still priced as a near-certain hold. The real action is whether the dot plot and press conference signal a hike is coming later in 2026.8

Goldman Sachs scrapped its forecast for a December 2026 rate cut following the May jobs report.9 President Trump publicly stated on NBC's Meet the Press that "there's no reason to raise interest rates," creating an explicit public split between the White House and the direction bond markets are pricing.8

The May CPI report is due before the June 16–17 meeting. Another print above 3.5% would likely push hike odds back toward 62%. A softer reading could give Warsh room to stay on hold through the summer.

Three high-stakes events land in the next 48 hours:

Oracle (ORCL) — earnings Wednesday June 11, after close. Analysts expect Q4 FY2026 EPS of $1.96 (up ~15% year-over-year) and revenue of approximately $19.1 billion (up ~20%).10 Barclays (Overweight, $240 PT) and Jefferies (Buy, $320 PT) are both constructive heading into the print. TD Cowen recently raised its target to $300 from $250, citing AI capacity relief and lower costs from recent layoffs.10 Wall Street consensus is 28 Buys and 5 Holds with an average price target of $266.10

SpaceX (SPCX) — IPO pricing Thursday June 12. The company has set a fixed price of $135 per share — not subject to negotiation — and plans to sell 555.6 million shares, targeting a raise of approximately $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation.11 Morningstar has valued the company at $780 billion, roughly 48% below the offering's implied private valuation, and NYU professor Aswath Damodaran told CNBC the IPO "is too richly priced for my tastes."5 SpaceX is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under SPCX.

Adobe (ADBE) — earnings Thursday June 12, after close. Street consensus: $5.81–$5.85 EPS and approximately $6.45 billion in revenue for fiscal Q2 2026.12 Adobe guided for revenue of roughly $6.45 billion and EPS of $5.85 heading into the quarter.13

The week's central read-through hasn't changed: AI cloud demand is outrunning any macro headwind right now. Oracle and Adobe will be the next data points on whether enterprise software spending confirms that.